西部地区生物质能规模化开发规划建模及投资优化研究: 以沼气为例

项目名称： 西部地区生物质能规模化开发规划建模及投资优化研究: 以沼气为例

项目编号： No.71503216

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 邓彦斐

作者单位： 西南民族大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 我国正值经济社会转型的关键时期，能源需求持续增长，环境问题日益突出，可持续发展面临诸多挑战。在东部资源日趋枯竭、能源开发中心与供给半径向西迁移的情况下，发挥西部地区资源优势，开展生物质能这一可再生碳源的规模化开发规划建模与决策研究具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。通过对相关研究现状的总结与评析，本项目拟进行如下研究：（1）以沼气为例，结合区域资源及分类工程特征进行开发适宜度分析，基于布局规划和资源规划制定全周期开发时序，构建生物质能规模化开发的综合规划框架。（2）识别生物质原料的供给不确定性特征，协调区域生物质供应链，建立不确定条件下原料选择及配给模型及其动态供给策略。（3）协调两级政府目标排序差异构建双层多目标规划模型，建立兼顾政府投资与社会资本激励的投资优化决策过程。项目预期通过对以上三个方面的研究取得一些实质性结果，为构建有效的西部地区生物质能规模化开发管理决策体系提供理论和方法基础。

中文关键词： 能源开发；生物质能；规划建模；投资优化；西部地区

英文摘要： Our country is facing a critical period of positive economic and social transformation, energy demand continues to grow, environmental issues have become increasingly serious, and the sustainable development is facing many challenges. In the case of eastern resources are depleting, energy development center and the supply radius are westward migrating, based on the resources advantage in the western region, it is both theoretical importance and practical significance to carry out study of planning modeling and decision making for the scale development of biomass energy witch is the only renewable carbon source in western region. Through the summary and analysis of the relevant research status, the project intends to conduct the following research: (1) Take biogas as an example, consider the features of regional resources and various project kinds to analysis regional development suitability, make full cycle developing sequence according to layout planning and resource planning, then the integrated planning framework for biomass energy scale development is formed. (2) Identify the uncertain features of biomass resources and adjust regional biomass supply chain, then build resources selecting and allocating model as well as dynamic supply strategy under uncertainty. (3) Coordinate the target differences between central and local government to build a dual multi-objective programming model, and optimize the investment decision process taking into account both government and social capital investment incentives. The project is expected to achieve some substantial results through the study of these three aspects, and provide theory and methods basis to establishing an effective management decision-making system for biomass energy scale development in western region.

英文关键词： Energy development;Biomass energy;Planning modeling;Investment optimization;Western region