基于坡度约束CA模型的高原城镇坝区蔓延驱动力与管控机制研究

项目名称： 基于坡度约束CA模型的高原城镇坝区蔓延驱动力与管控机制研究

项目编号： No.41301180

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 曹洪华

作者单位： 云南师范大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 传统城镇化模式下，高原城镇建设用地对坝区资源的侵占与日俱增，坝区的生态空间、农业生产空间受到前所未有的挤压。本项目以我国高原地区城镇用地为研究对象，拟从以下方面展开：一是设定坡度变量导致城镇坝区蔓延的假设，构建坡度约束CA模型，动态模拟高原城镇空间演化过程，验证坡度变量对坝区蔓延的约束关系，回答为什么"城镇上山"；二是借助多元统计分析和数据包分析等技术，分析坝区用地规模与经济-环境效应的前、后向关系，提取城镇坝区蔓延的驱动力；三是利用土地管理分析工具，构建高原城镇坝区约束开发的管控模式与政策体系，回答如何"城镇上山"，为我国高原城镇集约化用地和坝区可持续发展的实践提供一定支撑。

中文关键词： 城镇空间；用地蔓延；过程模拟；城镇上山；管控体系

英文摘要： With citys and towns in Chinese Plateau region as demonstrated objects, first, the paper concludes rules and characteristics of space-time change according to measurement on spread process of dam area suitable for agriculture in cities and towns of Chinese plateau region during urbanization since 1990s; second, it dynamically simulates the space evolution course of pleteau city by integrating slope constraint CA model by means of compact coupling; third, it reveals reason and result relations between land use scale and economic-environment effect in dam area, resorting to dimensional statistics and analysis data package and other technologies; finally, it primarily puts forward control mechanism for restricted development in Chinese pleteau city and town dam areas. In theory, it tells "what kind of pleteau city and town space structure has better econimic-environment effect", and primarily reveals value relationship, evolution process and mechanism of pleteau town space structure effect. And practically it provides certain theoretical bases for spacial strucutre optimization and sustainable development practice in Chinese pleteau cities and towns.

英文关键词： Urban space；Land sprawl；Process simulation；Mountainous cities；Management and control system