影响东亚冬季气候的海温和北极海冰配置型

项目名称： 影响东亚冬季气候的海温和北极海冰配置型

项目编号： No.41305064

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 韩哲

作者单位： 中国科学院大气物理研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 本研究旨在寻找影响东亚冬季气候的海温和北极海冰配置型。研究两者的协同作用与实际情况更符合。一方面，观测中海温和海冰对大气的影响是同时存在的；另一方面，它们对大气的影响可能存在非线性作用，使得不同配置型的协同作用并不等于各自单独作用的简单线性叠加。因此，研究影响东亚冬季气候的海温和海冰配置型对改善短期气候预测更有实际意义。 首先基于观测资料，利用奇异值分解、主成分分析等统计方法寻找与东亚冬季气候存在联系的海温和海冰配置型。再运用大气环流模式进行数值试验，研究上述海温和海冰配置型对东亚冬季气候的影响，分析两者单独作用的线性叠加与协同作用之间的差异。最后结合观测和数值模拟，分析海温和海冰配置型影响大气的物理机制，以及与各自单独影响机制之间的不同。

中文关键词： 海冰；海温；协同作用；东亚冬季气候；

英文摘要： This study mainly investigates the collaborate patterns of Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which are closely related with the East Asian winter climate. It is more consistent with the actual situation to study their coordinated role than individual roles. Firstly, the influences of sea ice and SST anomalies on the atmosphere are simultaneous in the observation. Furthermore, because their influences are nonlinear, the total role can not be interpreted by the linear sum of their sole impact. Hence, it is meaningful to consider the two as one unity for improving the short-term forecast. Based on the observational data, the combine patterns of Arctic sea ice and SST anomalies associated with the East Asian winter climate will be investigated by statistical analysis. Then, using the atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of sea ice and SST anomalies will be analyzed, and the differences between their coordinated role and the sum of individual role will be checked. Finally, we will examine the mechanisms by which they influence the atmosphere, and the discrepancy between the mechanisms of combined and individual effects.

英文关键词： sea ice；sea surface temperature；Collaborate role；East Asian winter climate；