气候变化下贸易结构调整的碳减排效应研究：基于WIOD数据库的MRIO模型

项目名称： 气候变化下贸易结构调整的碳减排效应研究：基于WIOD数据库的MRIO模型

项目编号： No.41205105

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 大气科学学科

项目作者： 裴建锁

作者单位： 对外经济贸易大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 由温室气体排放过量引起的气候变化已成为全人类面对的一项巨大挑战。各国一致认为应将全球温度变暖控制在2℃以内，但方法和途径有待进一步研究。随着全球化进程的发展，区域环境政策的有效性受到挑战。贸易隐含碳占全球碳排放总量的比重逐年增加，该问题已成为学术研究和全球气候变化谈判的热点之一。课题组前期研究发现中国的贸易隐含碳呈现结构性差异，结合文献及既往工作基础，我们推测：贸易结构调整对全球碳排放的变动具有显著影响。鉴于此，本项目拟基于欧盟最新开发的世界投入产出数据库（WIOD），通过构建反映加工贸易的多地区非竞争型投入产出模型（MRIO），研究气候变化下贸易结构调整的碳减排效应，回答中国参与国际生产分工是否有助于全球碳减排的问题。并利用结构分解分析方法，从消费者责任视角定量研究贸易结构变动对全球碳减排的贡献率，为产业结构调整、气候谈判、环境产品谈判等议题提供新论据。

中文关键词： 气候变化；碳减排；贸易隐含碳；贸易结构；MRIO模型

英文摘要： Climate change, mainly caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions, has become a great challenge globally. Most countries agreed that global temperatures should be warming to less than two centigrade degree, but the ways and means need further investigation. Along with the development of globalization, the effectiveness of regional environmental policy is questioned. The ratio of carbon emissions embodied in trade to global carbon emissions has been increasing recently, which has become one of the hot topics both in academic research and in global climate change negotiations. Our previous study suggests that China's carbon emissions embodied in trade exhibit structural differences. Based on the literature and our previous work, it is hypothesized that: trade structure adjustment has a significant impact on changes in global carbon emissions. In view of this, based on the latest World Input-Output Database (WIOD) constructed in the European Union, this project aims to develop a multi-region non-competitive input-output model (MRIO) capturing processing trade. By so doing, the effects of trade restructuring on carbon emissions reduction under climate change constraints will be studied. And it is also feasible to answer questions like: whether China's participation in the international production fragmentation con

英文关键词： Climate Change；Carbon Emissions Reduction；Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade；Structure of Foreign Trade；MRIO Model