基于元胞自动机和数据同化的溢油模拟

项目名称： 基于元胞自动机和数据同化的溢油模拟

项目编号： No.41301408

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 张亦汉

作者单位： 广东财经大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 频繁的海上石油开采和石油运输使得发生溢油事故的概率增大。海上溢油事故一旦发生，若得不到及时控制，必将严重损害海洋生态环境。因此，在溢油发生后，应准确地模拟并预测溢油的时空动态变化以控制溢油范围、保护海洋生态环境。元胞自动机（CA）是模拟溢油时空动态变化过程的有力工具，但目前这方面的研究、理论和技术方法尚处于初始阶段。本项目拟建立基于元胞自动机和数据同化的溢油模拟平台，结合元胞自动机模型、数据挖掘和数据同化等技术获取在时间和空间上均连续的溢油变化过程，为政府制定有关的应急方案提供科学的决策支持。具体内容包括：1)构建基于数据挖掘的溢油CA模型；2)集成数据同化的溢油CA模拟；3)耦合集合卡尔曼滤波和多参数估计的CA模型。

中文关键词： 溢油；元胞自动机；数据同化；集合卡尔曼滤波；

英文摘要： The rapid development of the economy makes the growing national demand for oil. Maritime activities, such as, ocean oil transportation and offshore oil exploitation, are prompted more and more frequent. Therefore, the probability of oil spill also will increase. If oil spill cannot be controlled in time, it will seriously harm the national offshore marine ecological environment. Therefore, it is necessary to make a series of policies for oil spill. Before making policies, the government should predict the accurate dynamic changes of oil spill. However, the traditional methods are often used empirical methods, simplify the oil spill process and use static model parameters, it is difficult to obtain high temporal and spatial resolution of the oil spill. So the project intends to combine cellular automata model (CA), data mining and data assimilation to obtain the continuous and accurate oil spill change process in time and space. The content includes: 1) oil spill CA model based on data mining, 2) oil spill CA model based on data assimilation, 3) oil spill CA model based on ensemble Kalman filter and multi-parameter estimates. The project will help to improve oil spill emergency response capacity and technical level and provide a scientific means to protect the ecological environment.

英文关键词： Oil Spill；Cellular Automata；Data Assimilation；Ensemble Kalman Filter；