【国际】石油币的推出将给委内瑞拉带来什么？

2018 年 10 月 17 日 互联网金融

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的调查结果，到2018年底，委内瑞拉的年通胀率可能高达1,370,000%。今年，由于委内瑞拉在政策和生产方面举步维艰，并随着加密货币Petro（石油币）的推出，该国的通货膨胀率估计已经上升了好几次。

并不陌生的新闻标题

在整个2018年，委内瑞拉与通货膨胀的斗争多登上了头条新闻。CNN报道了该国通货膨胀的原因，如“多年来政府在福利项目上的过度支出、管理不善的设施和破败的农场”。

这是国际货币基金组织今年第三次提高其通货膨胀预期，从1月份的13,000%，到7月份的1,000,000%。预计委内瑞拉2018年国内生产总值(GDP)将下降18%。对于一个石油储量如此丰富的国家来说，这是一个不好的消息。

加剧通胀问题的原因之一是，委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯•马杜罗(Nicolas Maduro)大幅提高最低工资。自2013年以来，马杜罗连续24次提高最低工资，这在一定程度上导致了许多企业倒闭。

石油币即将公开发售

在马杜罗的领导下，委内瑞拉政府希望通过“石油币”寻求解决经济困境的办法。据称，石油币是一种政府发行的加密货币，由该国石油储备作为支撑。

为了解决通胀问题，马杜罗说，政府将创造一种与石油币挂钩的法币。而石油币本身就与石油挂钩，这听起来很令人困惑。这种双重锚定的法币被称为“拥有主权”的玻利瓦尔。

马杜罗解释说:

我请求你们的信任与支持，超越意识形态和政治立场，因为委内瑞拉需要这种改变，黑手党的时代已经结束了!我们对委内瑞拉未来的经济前景应该有正确的认识，最重要的是，我们将实现这一目标。从逻辑上讲，根据马杜罗以往的记录，他的这些说法很难令人信服。

继续推动

在一片怀疑声中，马杜罗继续坚持石油币的想法。他在8月底宣布：

委内瑞拉将建立第二个以石油价格为基础的会计单位。它将是共和国的第二个会计单位，并将作为委内瑞拉石油工业强制性的会计单位开始运作。

也有一些疑虑表明，石油币及其石油后盾可能根本就不存在。此外，据报道没有商店或者店铺使用石油币，唯一能找到的买家是匿名的网上人士。

根据最近的报道，石油币的采用率虽然很低，但是在11月份的公开发售后，这种情况可能会有所转变。与此同时，委内瑞拉公民正在成群结队地离开这个国家。

10月8日，委内瑞拉宣布“工资和奖金都将用石油币来支付”，马杜罗对此的解释是，他希望工薪阶层的收入能产生更大的影响。

英文原文

Based on findings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual inflation rate for Venezuela could reach as high as 1.37 million percent by the end of 2018. Inflation estimates for the country have risen several times this year as Venezuela struggles with policies and production — and prepares to launch its Petro cryptocurrency

No Stranger To The Headlines

Venezuela has made headlines many times throughout 2018 in its current struggle with inflation. CNN reports the cause of such inflation as the result of “years of excessive government spending on welfare programs, poorly managed facilities and dilapidated farms.”

This marks the third time the IMF has increased its inflation estimates this year, with estimates from January of 13,000 percent, and from July at 1,000,000 percent. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is also expected to decrease by 18 percent for 2018. This is bad news for a country that has such a promising amount of oil reserves.

Adding to the inflation problem is the dramatic increase of minimum wage, brought on by Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s president. Maduro has raised minimum wage an astounding 24 times since 2013, leading in part to many business closings.

Petro Cryptocurrency Nears Public Sale

Led by Maduro, Venezuela’s government has sought a cure for its economic woes in the “Petro,” a state-issued cryptocurrency allegedly backed by barrels of oil.

In further efforts to combat the problem of inflation, Maduro has said that the government will create a fiat currency that’s pegged to the Petro, which is itself pegged to oil — as confusing as that sounds. This double-pegged fiat currency is called the Bolivar Soberano — or, in English, the Sovereign Bolivar.

Maduro explained:

I ask for your confidence, I ask for your support, beyond ideologies and political positions, because Venezuela needs this change, the mafias are over!… We have the correct vision of what the economic future in Venezuela should be, above all, we will achieve it.

Logically, it would be difficult to trust these statements based on previous track record.

Pushing On

Amidst skepticism, Maduro continues to be adamant about the idea of the Petro. He announced in late August that, “Venezuela will have a second accounting unit based on the price, the value of the Petro. It will be a second accounting unit of the Republic and will begin operations as a mandatory accounting unit of our PDVSA oil industry.”

Several doubts have also come to light that the Petro (and its oil backing) may not even exist at all. Additionally, no shops or stores were reportedly using the Petro, and the only buyers that could be found were anonymous online persons.

Based on recent reports, it appears that Petro adoption has been low, though this may change following the public sale in November. Meanwhile, Citizens continue to leave the country in droves.

Most recently, on Oct. 8, it was announced that Venezuelan “salary bonuses would be paid in Petros,” with Maduro explaining that he wants money made by salaried workers to have more impact.

Hopefully, the public will see a brighter future for Venezuela in the days ahead.

作者：Benjamin Pirus
编译：节奏大师
稿源（译）：巴比特资讯