Secure Federated Learning for Residential Short Term Load Forecasting

The inclusion of intermittent and renewable energy sources has increased the importance of demand forecasting in power systems. Smart meters can play a critical role in demand forecasting due to the measurement granularity they provide. Despite their virtue, smart meters used for forecasting face some constraints as consumers' privacy concerns, reluctance of utilities and vendors to share data with competitors or third parties, and regulatory constraints. This paper examines a collaborative machine learning method, federated learning extended with privacy preserving techniques for short-term demand forecasting using smart meter data as a solution to the previous constraints. The combination of privacy preserving techniques and federated learning enables to ensure consumers' confidentiality concerning both their data, the models generated using it (Differential Privacy), and the communication mean (Secure Aggregation). To evaluate this paper's collaborative secure federated learning setting, we explore current literature to select the baseline for our simulations and evaluation. We simulate and evaluate several scenarios that explore how traditional centralized approaches could be projected in the direction of a decentralized, collaborative and private system. The results obtained over the evaluations provided decent performance and in a privacy setting using differential privacy almost perfect privacy budgets (1.39,$10e^{-5}$) and (2.01,$10e^{-5}$) with a negligible performance compromise.