Omnibus portmanteau tests, for detecting simultaneous linear and nonlinear dependence structures in time series, are proposed. The tests are based on combining the autocorrelation function of the conditional residuals, the autocorrelation function of the conditional square residuals, and the cross-correlation function between the conditional residuals and their squares. The quasi maximum likelihood estimate is used to derive the asymptotic distribution as a chi-squared distribution under a general class of time series models including ARMA, arch, and other linear and nonlinear models. The simulation results show that the proposed tests successfully control the Type I error probability and tend to be more powerful than other tests in many cases. The efficacy of the proposed tests is demonstrated through the analysis of Facebook Inc., daily log returns.
翻译:提出了用于探测时间序列中同时线性和非线性依赖结构的总括端口门托测试,其依据是:将有条件残余物的自动关系功能、有条件的平方残余物的自动关系功能和有条件残余物与其方形之间的交叉关系功能结合起来;使用准最大可能性估计值,得出无症状分布,作为在一般时间序列模型类别下的一种奇异分布,包括ARMA、拱形和其他线性和非线性模型;模拟结果表明,拟议的测试成功地控制了I型错误概率,在许多情况下,其效力往往大于其他测试;通过分析Facebook Inc、日志回报,来显示拟议测试的效果。