Calibrated Propensity Scores for Causal Effect Estimation

Propensity scores are commonly used to balance observed covariates while estimating treatment effects. Estimates obtained through propensity score weighing can be biased when the propensity score model cannot learn the true treatment assignment mechanism. We argue that the probabilistic output of a learned propensity score model should be calibrated, i.e. a predictive treatment probability of 90% should correspond to 90% of individuals being assigned the treatment group. We propose simple recalibration techniques to ensure this property. We investigate the theoretical properties of a calibrated propensity score model and its role in unbiased treatment effect estimation. We demonstrate improved causal effect estimation with calibrated propensity scores in several tasks including high-dimensional genome-wide association studies, where we also show reduced computational requirements when calibration is applied to simpler propensity score models.