COVID-19 testing has become a standard approach for estimating prevalence which then assist in public health decision making to contain and mitigate the spread of the disease. The sampling designs used are often biased in that they do not reflect the true underlying populations. For instance, individuals with strong symptoms are more likely to be tested than those with no symptoms. This results in biased estimates of prevalence (too high). Typical post-sampling corrections are not always possible. Here we present a simple bias correction methodology derived and adapted from a correction for publication bias in meta analysis studies. The methodology is general enough to allow a wide variety of customization making it more useful in practice. Implementation is easily done using already collected information. Via a simulation and two real datasets, we show that the bias corrections can provide dramatic reductions in estimation error.
翻译:COVID-19测试已成为估计流行率的标准方法,然后有助于公共卫生决策,以遏制和缓解疾病的蔓延。使用的抽样设计往往有偏差,因为它们没有反映真正的基本人口。例如,有强烈症状的人比没有症状的人更有可能接受测试。这导致对流行率的偏差估计(太高)。典型的抽样后更正并非总有可能。我们在这里提出了一个简单的偏见纠正方法,它源自元分析研究中出版偏差的更正,并作了调整。该方法很笼统,允许广泛的定制化,使其在实际中更有用。使用已经收集的信息很容易完成。通过模拟和两个真实数据集,我们表明偏差纠正可以大量减少估计误差。