Consistent Selection of the Number of Groups in Panel Models via Sample-Splitting

Group number selection is a key question for group panel data modelling. In this work, we develop a cross validation method to tackle this problem. Specifically, we split the panel data into a training dataset and a testing dataset on the time span. We first use the training dataset to estimate the parameters and group memberships. Then we apply the fitted model to the testing dataset and then the group number is estimated by minimizing certain loss function values on the testing dataset. We design the loss functions for panel data models either with or without fixed effects. The proposed method has two advantages. First, the method is totally data-driven thus no further tuning parameters are involved. Second, the method can be flexibly applied to a wide range of panel data models. Theoretically, we establish the estimation consistency by taking advantage of the optimization property of the estimation algorithm. Experiments on a variety of synthetic and empirical datasets are carried out to further illustrate the advantages of the proposed method.