The aims of this study are to identify risk factors and develop a composite risk factor of initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in regency level in Indonesia. Three risk factors, i.e., exposure, transmission and susceptibility, are investigated. Multivariate regression, and Canonical correlation analysis are implemented to measure the association between the risk factors and the initial stage of reported COVID -19 cases. The result reveals strong correlation between the composite risk factor and the number of COVID-19 cases at the initial stage of pandemic. The influence of population density, percentage of people commuting, international exposures, and number of public places which prone to COVID-19 transmission are observed. Large regencies and cities, mostly in Java, have high risk score. The largest risk score owned by regencies that are part of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area.
翻译:这项研究的目的是查明风险因素,并拟订印度尼西亚县一级COVID-19大流行初期阶段的综合风险因素。调查了三种风险因素,即接触、传播和易感性。执行多变回归和Canonical相关分析,以衡量风险因素与所报告的COVID-19案例初始阶段之间的联系。结果显示,在大流行病初始阶段,综合风险因素与COVID-19大流行案例数量之间有着密切的关联。人口密度、通勤人口百分比、国际风险以及易于COVID-19大传播的公共场所数量的影响。大区和城市(大部分在爪哇)的风险得分很高。作为雅加达都市地区一部分的各县拥有最大的风险得分。