While sensitivity analysis improves the transparency and reliability of mathematical models, its uptake by modelers is still scarce. This is partially explained by its technical requirements, which may be hard to understand and implement by the non-specialist. Here we propose a sensitivity analysis approach based on the concept of discrepancy that is as easy to understand as the visual inspection of input-output scatterplots. Firstly, we show that some discrepancy measures are able to rank the most influential parameters of a model almost as accurately as the variance-based total sensitivity index. We then introduce an ersatz-discrepancy whose performance as a sensitivity measure matches that of the best-performing discrepancy algorithms, is simple to implement, easier to interpret and orders of magnitude faster.
翻译:尽管敏感性分析改善了数学模型的透明度和可靠性,但普通型号制作者的使用仍然很少。这一部分可以通过技术上的要求来解释,因为这些要求可能很难让非专业人员理解和实现。在这里,我们提出了一种基于差异概念的敏感性分析方法,这种方法与输入- 输出散点图的可视检查一样容易理解。首先,我们展示了一些差异度量能够排名模型最具影响力的参数,准确度几乎与基于方差的总敏感性指数一样。然后,我们引入了一种伪差异度量,其作为敏感性度量的性能与最佳执行差异算法的性能相同,易于实现,易于解释,速度快了数个数量级。