Bayesian optimal experimental design is a sub-field of statistics focused on developing methods to make efficient use of experimental resources. Any potential design is evaluated in terms of a utility function, such as the (theoretically well-justified) expected information gain (EIG); unfortunately however, under most circumstances the EIG is intractable to evaluate. In this work we build off of successful variational approaches, which optimize a parameterized variational model with respect to bounds on the EIG. Past work focused on learning a new variational model from scratch for each new design considered. Here we present a novel neural architecture that allows experimenters to optimize a single variational model that can estimate the EIG for potentially infinitely many designs. To further improve computational efficiency, we also propose to train the variational model on a significantly cheaper-to-evaluate lower bound, and show empirically that the resulting model provides an excellent guide for more accurate, but expensive to evaluate bounds on the EIG. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique on generalized linear models, a class of statistical models that is widely used in the analysis of controlled experiments. Experiments show that our method is able to greatly improve accuracy over existing approximation strategies, and achieve these results with far better sample efficiency.
翻译:Bayesian最佳实验设计是一个统计的子领域,其重点是制定有效利用实验资源的方法。任何潜在设计都是根据一种实用功能来评估的,例如(理论上理由充分)预期的信息获取(EIG);但不幸的是,在多数情况下,EIG是难以评估的。在这项工作中,我们利用成功的变式方法,在EIG的界限方面优化一个参数化的变异模型;过去的工作重点是从零开始为所考虑的每一种新设计学习一个新的变异模型。我们在这里提出了一个新的神经结构,使实验者能够优化单一的变异模型,对EIG进行可能的无限设计进行估计。为了进一步提高计算效率,我们还提议将变异模型培训成一种价格低廉、低限评估费用高得多的模型,并用经验显示,由此形成的模型为更准确、但用来评价EIG的界限提供了极好的指南。我们展示了我们在一般线性模型方面的技术的有效性,一种统计模型在分析受控实验中广泛使用。实验表明,我们的方法能够大大改进现有战略的精确性,并实现这些更好的结果。