Point process models are widely used tools to issue forecasts or assess risks. In order to check which models are useful in practice, they are examined by a variety of statistical methods. We transfer the concept of consistent scoring functions, which are principled statistical tools to compare forecasts, to the point process setting. The results provide a novel approach for the comparative assessment of forecasts and models and encompass some existing testing procedures.
翻译:为了检查哪些模型在实际中有用,我们采用各种统计方法来审查这些模型。我们把一致的评分功能的概念,作为比较预测的有原则的统计工具,转移到点评过程的设置。结果为比较评估预测和模型提供了一种新颖的方法,并包含一些现有的测试程序。