Generalizing a causal effect: sensitivity analysis and missing covariates

While a randomized controlled trial (RCT) readily measures the average treatment effect (ATE), this measure may need to be generalized to the target population to account for a sampling bias in the RCT's population. Identifying this target population treatment effect needs covariates in both sets to capture all treatment effect modifiers that are shifted between the two sets. Standard estimators then use either weighting (IPSW), outcome modeling (G-formula), or combine the two in doubly robust approaches (AIPSW). However such covariates are often not available in both sets. Therefore, after completing existing proofs on the complete case consistency of those three estimators, we compute the expected bias induced by a missing covariate, assuming a Gaussian distribution and a semi-parametric linear model. This enables sensitivity analysis for each missing covariate pattern, giving the sign of the expected bias. We also show that there is no gain in imputing a partially-unobserved covariate. Finally we study the replacement of a missing covariate by a proxy. We illustrate all these results on simulations, as well as semi-synthetic benchmarks using data from the Tennessee Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR), and with a real-world example from critical care medicine.