Bayesian methods for modelling and inference are being increasingly used in the cryospheric sciences, and glaciology in particular. Here, we present a review of recent works in glaciology that adopt a Bayesian approach when conducting an analysis. We organise the chapter into three categories: i) Gaussian-Gaussian models, ii) Bayesian hierarchical models, and iii) Bayesian calibration approaches. In addition, we present two detailed case studies that involve the application of Bayesian hierarchical models in glaciology. The first case study is on the spatial prediction of surface mass balance across the Icelandic mountain glacier Langj\"okull, and the second is on the prediction of sea-level rise contributions from the Antactcic ice sheet. This chapter is presented in such a way that it is accessible to both statisticians as well as earth scientists.
翻译:在冰层科学中,特别是冰川学中越来越多地使用贝叶斯建模和推断方法。这里,我们介绍对最近在冰川学中采用贝叶斯方法进行分析的冰川学研究的回顾。我们将该章分为三类:(一) Gaussian-Gauussian模型,(二) Bayesian等级模型,(三) Bayesian校准方法。此外,我们还介绍了两个详细的案例研究,涉及在冰川学中应用巴伊西亚等级模型。第一个案例研究是冰岛山冰川Langj\"Akull之间地表质量平衡的空间预测,第二个案例研究是预测Antactcecic冰层对海平面上升的贡献。本章的表述方式使统计人员和地球科学家都能够查阅。