True Detective: A Challenging Benchmark for Deep Abductive Reasoning \\in Foundation Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance in zero-shot reasoning tasks, including abductive reasoning. This is reflected in their ability to perform well on current benchmarks in this area. However, to truly test the limits of LLMs in abductive reasoning, a more challenging benchmark is needed. In this paper, we present such a benchmark, consisting of 191 long-form mystery stories, each approximately 1200 words in length and presented in the form of detective puzzles. Each puzzle includes a multiple-choice question for evaluation sourced from the "5 Minute Mystery" platform. Our results show that state-of-the-art GPT models perform significantly worse than human solvers on this benchmark, with an accuracy of 28\% compared to 47\% for humans. This indicates that there is still a significant gap in the abductive reasoning abilities of LLMs and highlights the need for further research in this area. Our work provides a challenging benchmark for future studies on reasoning in language models and contributes to a better understanding of the limits of LLMs' abilities.