Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions about whether to enforce lockdowns or allow certain activities. The effective reproduction number Rt is the standard index used in many countries for this goal. However, it is known that due to the delays between infection and case registration, its use for decision making is somewhat limited. In this paper a near real-time COVINDEX is proposed for monitoring the evolution of the pandemic. The index is computed from predictions obtained from a GAM beta regression for modelling the test positive rate as a function of time. The proposal is illustrated using data on COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and compared with Rt. A simple chart is also proposed for monitoring local and national outbreaks by policy makers and public health officials.
翻译：检测COVID-19疾病传播随时间推移的变化是流行病增长的一个关键指标。 几乎实时监测这一流行病的增长对于决策者和公共卫生官员来说至关重要,他们需要就是否实施封锁或允许某些活动作出知情的决定。有效的复制号Rt是许多国家用于这一目标的标准指数。然而,众所周知,由于感染和病例登记之间的延误,在决策方面的使用有点有限。本文件建议用一个近实时的COVINDEX来监测该流行病的演变情况。该指数是从GAM 贝塔回归得出的预测中计算出来的,以模拟测试阳性率作为时间函数。该提案用意大利的COVID-19流行病数据以及与Rt的数据比较来说明。还提议用一个简单的图表来监测决策者和公共卫生官员在地方和国家爆发的疫情。
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