In this paper I investigate a Bayesian inverse problem in the specific setting of a price setting monopolist facing a randomly growing demand in multiple possibly interconnected markets. Investigating the Value of Information of a signal to the monopolist in a fully dynamic discrete model employing the Kalman-Bucy-Stratonovich filter, we find that it may be non-monotonic in the variance of the signal. In the classical static settings of the Value of Information literature this relationship may be convex or concave, but is always monotonic. The existence of the non-monotonicity depends critically on the exogenous growth rate of the system.
翻译:在本文中,我调查了一个贝叶斯人反向的问题,即具体设定定价单一政策者在多个可能相互关联的市场中随机增长的需求。调查在使用卡尔曼-布西-斯特拉托诺维奇过滤器的全动态独立模型中向垄断者发出信号的信息价值。我们发现,在信息价值文献的古典静态设置中,这种关系可能是共性或共性,但总是单调的。非单调性的存在关键取决于系统的外源增长率。