In this article, we develop a deterministic compartmental model including the spatio-temporal aspect and the wearing of masks by the general public for the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. This model is based on the SIR model of Kermack and McKendrick and includes mobility terms that model the movement of individuals wearing masks between Guadeloupe andMartinique. The objective of the model is to analyze the effects of mobility and the wearing of masks by the general public on the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in these two regions.Numerical simulations of this model show the importance of wearing masks by the general public, even if they are not very inefficient, and indicate that the model is capable of qualitatively simulating the propagation trends of the Covid-19 epidemic. This work is part ofmy doctoral thesis, the subject of which is entitled {\guillemotleft} stochastic modeling of Covid-19 in an island environment taking into account the spatio-temporal aspect {\guillemotright}.
翻译:在文章中,我们开发了一种决定性的分层模型,包括时空因素和大众为传播Covid-19流行病戴面罩,该模型以Kermack和McKendrick的SIR模型为基础,包括移动性术语,以此为Guadroope和Martinique之间戴面罩的人的移动模式,目的是分析移动和大众戴面罩对Covid-19流行病在这两个区域蔓延的影响。 这一模型的模拟模拟表明公众戴面罩的重要性,即使这些面具效率不高,也表明该模型能够从质量上模拟Covid-19流行病的传播趋势。这项工作是博士理论的一部分,其题目是:在岛屿环境中对Covid-19的模型进行观察,同时考虑到时空因素。