Integrated models are a popular tool for analyzing species of conservation concern. Species of conservation concern are often monitored by multiple entities that generate several datasets. Individually, these datasets may be insufficient for guiding management due to low spatio-temporal resolution, biased sampling, or large observational uncertainty. Integrated models provide an approach for assimilating multiple datasets in a coherent framework that can compensate for these deficiencies. While conventional integrated models have been used to assimilate count data with surveys of survival, fecundity, and harvest, they can also assimilate ecological surveys that have differing spatio-temporal regions and observational uncertainties. Motivated by independent aerial and ground surveys of lesser prairie-chicken abundance, we developed an integrated modeling approach that assimilates density estimates derived from surveys with distinct sources of observational error into a joint framework that provides shared inference on spatio-temporal trends. For implementation, we model these data using a Bayesian Markov melding approach and apply several data augmentation strategies for efficient sampling. Our integrated model decreased uncertainty in annual density estimates, facilitated prediction at unsampled regions, and quantified the inferential cost associated with reduced survey effort.
翻译:保护物种关注的物种往往由产生若干数据集的多个实体监测,个别而言,这些数据集可能不足以指导管理,因为时空分辨率低、抽样偏差或观测不确定性大;综合模型为在一个能够弥补这些缺陷的统一框架内将多个数据集同化提供了方法;虽然传统综合模型被用来将计数数据同生存、繁殖和收获调查等同起来,但它们也可以吸收具有不同时空区域和观测不确定性的生态调查;在独立对低草原-先天丰度进行空中和地面调查的推动下,我们开发了一种综合模型方法,将具有不同观测误差源的调查得出的密度估计数同化为一个联合框架,以提供关于这些缺陷的共同推断;关于实施,我们用Bayesian Markov melding方法模拟这些数据,并采用若干数据扩增战略进行高效取样。我们的综合模型减少了年度密度估计数的不确定性,便利了对未取样区域进行预测的预测,并量化了相关努力。