We use a simulation study to compare three methods for adaptive experimentation: Thompson sampling, Tempered Thompson sampling, and Exploration sampling. We gauge the performance of each in terms of social welfare and estimation accuracy, and as a function of the number of experimental waves. We further construct a set of novel "hybrid" loss measures to identify which methods are optimal for researchers pursuing a combination of experimental aims. Our main results are: 1) the relative performance of Thompson sampling depends on the number of experimental waves, 2) Tempered Thompson sampling uniquely distributes losses across multiple experimental aims, and 3) in most cases, Exploration sampling performs similarly to random assignment.
翻译:我们用模拟研究比较三种适应性实验方法:汤普森取样、Tempered Thompson取样和勘探取样。我们从社会福利和估计准确性以及实验波浪数的函数来衡量每种试验的性能。我们进一步制定一套新型的“混合”损失措施,以确定哪些方法对追求综合实验目标的研究人员是最佳的。我们的主要结果如下:(1)汤普森取样的相对性能取决于实验波数;(2)汤普森取样具有独特性,将损失分布在多个实验目标之间;(3)在多数情况下,勘探取样工作与随机任务相似。