This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research feature aims to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of the country-level distribution observed in COVID-19 pandemic, and obtains some interesting results as follows. (1) The distributions of the numbers for cumulative confirmed cases and deaths obey power-law in early stages of COVID-19 and stretched exponential function in subsequent course. (2) The distributions of the numbers for daily confirmed cases and deaths obey power-law in early and late stages of COVID-19 and stretched exponential function in middle stages. The crossover region between power-law and stretched exponential behaviour seems to depend on the evolution of "infection" event and "death" event. Such observation implies a kind of important symmetry related to the dynamics process of COVID-19 spreading. (3) The distributions of the normalized numbers for each metric show a temporal scaling behaviour in 2-year period, and are well described by stretched exponential function. The observation of power-law and stretched exponential behaviour in such country-level distributions suggests underlying intrinsic dynamics of a virus spreading process in human interconnected society. And thus it is important for understanding and mathematically modeling the COVID-19 pandemic.
翻译:这项工作系统地根据2020年4月至2022年6月期间全世界200多个国家累计和每日确认的COVID-19病例和死亡人数的数量进行数据分析,这种研究特征旨在揭示COVID-19大流行病观察到的国家一级分布的时间和空间变化,并取得如下一些有趣的结果:(1) COVID-19早期的累积确认病例和死亡遵守权力法的人数分布,以及随后的指数函数拉长。 (2) 在COVID-19的早期和后期阶段,每日确认的病例和死亡遵守权力法的人数分布,中间阶段的指数功能拉长。权力法和指数行为之间的交叉区域似乎取决于“感染”事件和“死亡”事件的演变。这种观察意味着与COVID-19扩散的动态过程有关的重要对称。 (3) 每种指标的标准化数字分布显示2年期间的时间缩放行为,并用伸展的指数函数加以很好的描述。 在这种内在的人类动态中,权力法和指数行为之间的交叉区域似乎取决于“感染”事件和“死亡”事件的演变。