Characterizing the wind speed distribution properly is essential for the satisfactory production of potential energy in wind farms, being the mixture models usually employed in the description of such data. However, some mixture models commonly have the undesirable property of non-identifiability. In this work, we present an alternative distribution which is able to fit the wind speed data adequately. The new model, called Normal-Weibull-Weibull, is identifiable and its cumulative distribution function is written as a composition of two baseline functions. We discuss structural properties of the class that generates the proposed model, such as the linear representation of the probability density function, moments and moment generating function. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Finally, we present applications of the new distribution for modelling wind speed data measured in five different cities of the Northeastern Region of Brazil.
翻译:适当描述风速分布对于在风力农场令人满意地生产潜在能源至关重要,这是通常用于描述这些数据的混合模型。然而,一些混合模型通常具有不可辨识的不良特性。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个能够适当适应风速数据的替代分布方法。新的模型称为正常-Weibull-Weibull-Weibull,可以识别,其累积分布功能是两种基线功能的构成。我们讨论了产生拟议模型的类别的结构特性,例如概率密度函数的线性表示、时刻和时刻生成功能。我们进行了蒙特卡洛模拟研究,以调查参数最大概率估计的操作。最后,我们介绍了在巴西东北部五个不同城市测量的新分布模式风速数据的应用情况。