We use a logical device called the Dutch Book to establish epistemic confidence, defined as the sense of confidence \emph{in an observed} confidence interval. This epistemic property is unavailable -- or even denied -- in orthodox frequentist inference. In financial markets, including the betting market, the Dutch Book is also known as arbitrage or risk-free profitable transaction. A numerical confidence is deemed epistemic if its use as a betting price is protected from the Dutch Book by an external agent. Theoretically, to construct the Dutch Book, the agent must exploit unused information available in any relevant subset. Pawitan and Lee (2021) showed that confidence is an extended likelihood, and the likelihood principle states that the likelihood contains all the information in the data, hence leaving no relevant subset. Intuitively, this implies that confidence associated with the full likelihood is protected from the Dutch Book, and hence is epistemic. Our aim is to provide the theoretical support for this intuitive notion.
翻译:我们使用称为荷兰书的逻辑装置来建立隐喻信任,定义为信任感(在观察到的)信任间隔。在正统的常客论推断中,这种隐喻财产是不存在的,甚至被否认的。在金融市场,包括赌博市场,荷兰书也被称为套利交易或无风险盈利交易。如果外部代理人使用它作为赌注价格不受荷兰书的保护,那么数字信任就被视为隐喻。理论上,为了构建荷兰书,代理人必须利用任何相关子集中现有的未使用的信息。Pawitan和Lee(2021年)表明信任是一种扩大的可能性,而可能性原则则指出数据中包含所有信息的可能性,因此没有留下相关的子集。直观地说,这意味着与所有可能性相关的信任受到荷兰书的保护,因此是缩略语。我们的目的是为这一直观概念提供理论支持。