A typical power calculation is performed by replacing unknown population-level quantities in the power function with what is observed in external studies. Many authors and practitioners view this as an assumed value of power and offer the Bayesian quantity probability of success or assurance as an alternative. The claim is by averaging over a prior or posterior distribution, probability of success transcends power by capturing the uncertainty around the unknown true treatment effect and any other population-level parameters. We use p-value functions to frame both the probability of success calculation and the typical power calculation as merely producing two different point estimates of power. We demonstrate that Go/No-Go decisions based on either point estimate of power do not adequately quantify and control the risk involved, and instead we argue for Go/No-Go decisions that utilize inference on power for better risk management and decision making.
翻译:典型的权力计算方法是用外部研究中观察到的参数来取代电力功能中未知的人口数量。许多作者和从业者认为这是一种假定的权力价值,提供了巴耶斯数量的成功概率或保证作为替代办法。这种主张是通过在先前或后期分配中平均得出的,成功概率超越权力,通过捕捉未知的真正治疗效应和其他任何人口参数的不确定性而超越权力。我们使用P值功能将成功率计算概率和典型的权力计算设定为仅仅产生两种不同的权力估计点。我们证明,根据对权力的两点估计,Go/No-Go决定不能充分量化和控制所涉风险,相反,我们主张Go/No-Go决定利用对权力的推论进行更好的风险管理和决策。