Many systems used by society are extremely vulnerable to space weather events such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms which could potentially cause catastrophic damage. In recent years, many works have emerged to provide early warning to such systems by forecasting these events through some proxy, but these approaches have largely focused on a specific phenomenon. We present a sequence-to-sequence learning approach to the problem of forecasting global space weather conditions at an hourly resolution. This approach improves upon other work in this field by simultaneously forecasting several key proxies for geomagnetic activity up to 6 hours in advance. We demonstrate an improvement over the best currently known predictor of geomagnetic storms, and an improvement over a persistence baseline several hours in advance.
翻译:社会使用的许多系统都极易受到空间天气事件的影响,如太阳耀斑和地磁暴等,它们可能造成灾难性的损害。近年来,通过一些代用手段预测这些事件,为向这类系统提供预警,许多工作已经出现,但这些方法主要侧重于一个具体现象。我们提出了一个按小时分辨率预测全球空间天气状况问题的顺序和顺序学习方法。这一方法通过同时预测地磁活动的若干关键代理人,提前6小时进行,改进了这一领域的其他工作。我们展示了对目前已知最佳的地磁暴预报器的改进,并提前数小时预测了持久性基线的改进。