The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collision between aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capability for decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidance systems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments and flight testing. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior is represented using dynamic Bayesian networks. The original statistical models were developed from 2008-2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above 500 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient to assess the safety of smaller UAS operations below 500 feet AGL. In response, newer models with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in development since 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelated and not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. Our research objective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventional aircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models of rotorcraft were sufficiently different than models of fixed-wing aircraft to require type specific models. The primary contribution is guidance on which uncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collision avoidance system designed for low altitude operations. We also address which models can be surrogates for noncooperative aircraft without transponders.
翻译:国家航空空间系统(NAS)是一个复杂和不断发展的系统,能够安全、高效地进行航空; 高级空中机动概念和无人驾驶飞机等新的空域进入者必须在不降低总体安全或效率的情况下纳入NAS, 以降低飞机之间空中碰撞的风险; 蒙特卡洛模拟是几十年来开发、评估和认证飞机避免冲突系统的基本能力,这些系统往往通过在远处进行人际实验和飞行测试得到验证; 许多航空安全研究显示,有人驾驶飞机的行为使用动态贝耶斯网络; 从2008-2013年开发的原始统计模型支持地面500英尺以上高度的安全模拟; 然而,这些模型不足以评估在500英尺以下的飞机进行小型空中碰撞的风险; 作为回应,2018年以来开发了高度低于500英尺的AGL的新型模型; 许多模型假设,飞机行为不易相关,不依赖航空避免服务或附近飞机。 我们的研究目标是将常规飞机的不相关型号非相关型号的轨道模型进行比较,如果常规飞机的不相关型号和非型号的轨道型号的轨道型号的模型要求特定型号的固定式的型号的飞行器的性能则要求不同。