基于图模型冲突分析反问题理论的第三方调解策略研究

项目名称： 基于图模型冲突分析反问题理论的第三方调解策略研究

项目编号： No.71471087

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 徐海燕

作者单位： 南京航空航天大学

项目金额： 62万元

中文摘要： 目前我国正处在社会转型期，群体性冲突事件不断凸显，迫切需要政府作为第三方从中调停和化解。如何掌握冲突双方的底牌（偏好信息），以便找出富有创造性的策略从而协调各方利益，已成为第三方调解策略研究的关键问题。冲突分析正问题是根据博弈各方的方案和偏好来预测博弈结果，进而帮助各方进行战略决策。而冲突分析反问题能够帮助决策者通过研究以往案例掌握博弈各方的策略和相关的可能偏好信息，做到在复杂冲突中知己知彼，立于不败之地。本项目首先对基于图模型的冲突分析理论（GMCR）进行矩阵代数化，并构造相应的稳定性函数；其次构建反问题数学模型并开发有效的算法求解模型；然后开发相应的冲突正、反问题决策支持系统，可为第三方调解提供快捷、有效的解决方案。本项目将首次构建GMCR反问题的数学模型，这将是反问题理论的一次实质性突破。所构建的决策支持系统将为各级政府应对和处理群体性事件提供一种科学、有效的决策工具。

中文关键词： 决策分析；博弈论；不确定性决策

英文摘要： More and more conflicts in China require the governments to conciliate each part in conflicts as a third party. It is still an open question in conflict analysis for obtaining opponents' preferences so that a third party may control conflict events. Forward conflict analysis means to calculate conflict resultion if the information of decision makers (DMs), states, options, and preferences is given. The inverse problem of conflict means to try obtaining DMs' preferences so that the third party can intervene and solve conflits effectively. This research aims to obtain algebraic representation of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), establish a mathematical model for inverse problem of GMCR and search for the algorithms to solve inverse problems effectively. A decision support system (DSS) for the forward and inverse conflict analysis will be developed to provide the third party a useful tool. This research will establish a mathematical model for the inverse problem of conflict in the first time, which will be a great theoretic progress in the area of conflict analysis. The DSS will help the government intervene effectively as a third party.

英文关键词： Decision analysis;Game theory;Uncertain decision