基于变动统计理论的火工系统可靠性评估方法研究

项目名称： 基于变动统计理论的火工系统可靠性评估方法研究

项目编号： No.U1530135

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 温玉全

作者单位： 北京理工大学

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 本项目针对基于变动统计理论的火工系统可靠性评估方法开展研究，属于数据分析与统计计算的范畴,小样本可靠性评估是评估高可靠性产品的有利工具。本项目从火工系统输入刺激量与输出能量的关系模型出发，分析不同条件下数据的转换与融合关系模型，最终建立一套小样本可靠性评估方法，研究内容包括：（1）建立火工系统输入-输出能量关系数学模型；（2）建立计数数据与计量数据相互转化数学模型；（3）研究定性与定量综合确定继承因子的理论和方法；（4）研究基于混合先验的Bayes可靠性评估方法。本课题的研究对深入研究复杂火工系统可靠性评估中的信息融合与利用、提高可靠性评估精度等方面具有重要的理论价值和实际意义；同时对于可靠性试验数据分析等相关理论的发展也具有积极推动作用。

中文关键词： 变动统计理论；小样本；数据融合；可靠性评估；继承因子

英文摘要： The research on reliability assessment methods with small sample size for pyrotechnics system based on dynamic population statistical theory belongs to the category of data analysis and statistical calculation. The Reliability assessment method with small sample size is a favorable tool for the assessment of high reliability products. The reliability assessment method with small sample size was established in this project, which considered the relationship between input stimulus quantity and the output energy of pyrotechnics system and analyzed data transformation and integration model in the different conditions. The main research contents mainly includes:(1) Establish the mathematical model of the relationship between input and output energy. (2)Set up mutual conversion mathematical model between counting data and metricing data. (3) Study on the theory and methods that Combines qualitative analysis with quantitive analysis to determine inheriting factor.(4) Research on the Bayes reliability assessment method based on mixed prior distribution. The research has important theoretical value and practical significance in the further study of information fusion and the improvement of the reliability assessment precision for complex pyrotechnics system The research also has a positive role in promoting the development of reliability test data analysis and other related theory.

英文关键词： dynamic population statistical theory;small sample size;data fusion;reliability assessment;inheriting factor