我国农村可再生能源消费的影响因素与激励政策研究

项目名称： 我国农村可再生能源消费的影响因素与激励政策研究

项目编号： No.71473255

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 仇焕广

作者单位： 中国人民大学

项目金额： 69万元

中文摘要： 促进农村可再生能源的发展和利用对缓解我国能源安全和减少环境污染具有重要作用。本研究的目标是：分析包括可再生能源在内的我国农村各类生活能源需求的增长趋势、结构变化和影响因素，系统研究我国农村可再生能源发展的制约因素，提出我国农村可再生能源发展的政策建议。研究将通过较大规模实地调查数据、典型地区案例调查数据和计量经济模型方法，展开系统研究，评估目前相关政策的政策效果和存在不足。与已有研究相比，本研究主要有以下创新点：1）基于全国范围抽样和追踪实地调研，不仅对秸秆、沼气等可再生能源进行研究，还综合其替代能源（煤炭、液化气、电能等）的影响，在研究方法上采用联立方程模型系统估计各类因素对我国农村可再生能源消费的影响；2）在较大规模实地调查和定量化模型分析基础上，结合典型地区案例调查，从经济、技术、政策等多方面分析农村可再生能源的制约因素，评估目前相关政策的执行效果，提出科学和可行的政策建议。

中文关键词： 可再生能源；生活消费；制约因素；激励政策；模型分析

英文摘要： Promoting the development and utilization of renewable energy in rural China is not only important for improving China's energy security but also for reducing environmental pollution from traditional energy consumptions. The major goals of this study are to: analyze the development of energy consumption, the structure changes and factors in affecting rural household energy consumption; analyze the constraints of rural renewable energy development; and provide policy suggestions in promoting rural renewable energy development. The research will based on large scale household survey data, case study data from typical areas, and econometric models, systematically analyze the potential factors in affecting renewable energy consumption in China, and assess the effectiveness of current energy policies in rural China. Compared with existing studies, the advantages of this study include: 1) based on national wide large scale household survey data, analyzing the consumption of all kinds of energies in rural household consumption, not only include the renewable energies such as crop residues and biogas, but also the nonrenewable energies such coal and gas. Quantifying the impacts of such as income, price, household characteristics on rural energy consumption. With this method, this study can analyze the substitution effects between renewable and nonrenewable energy consumptions. 2) on top of large scale household surveys and econometric analysis, this study will also conduct case studies, to deeply understand the impacts of energy policies, social-economic factors, and technology constraints on rural renewable energy consumption.

英文关键词： renewable energy;household consumption;constraints;incentive policy;modeling analysis