旋转机械剩余寿命预测若干关键问题研究

项目名称： 旋转机械剩余寿命预测若干关键问题研究

项目编号： No.61473094

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 孙国玺

作者单位： 广东石油化工学院

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 旋转机械是石化装备中的核心设备，而旋转机械的剩余寿命预测是实现石化装备预测维护与健康管理、保障其安全可靠长周期运行的关键。考虑到复杂机械设备的机理模型难以精确获得，数据驱动的剩余寿命预测已成为学科前沿问题。然而，现有数据驱动的剩余寿命预测研究主要针对时不变退化率、固定运行环境、不受健康管理行为影响下的设备，难以满足石化工业中具有时变退化率、随机运行环境、受健康管理行为影响的旋转机械剩余寿命预测的要求。为此，本项目以石化装备中的旋转机械为对象，拟主要研究：1)时变退化率下的剩余寿命预测方法；2)随机运行环境下的剩余寿命预测方法；3)受健康管理行为影响的退化建模及剩余寿命预测方法；4)结合石化装备旋转机械设备的实际监测数据及实验数据进行应用验证。本课题的研究成果不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且对提高石化装备的安全性和可靠性具有潜在的工程应用价值。

中文关键词： 旋转机械；退化模型；剩余寿命；预测

英文摘要： Rotating machinery is the crucial component in the petrochemical equipment, while remaining useful life prediction of rotating machinery is the key to accomplish predictive maintenance and health management of the petrochemical equipment, and ultimately ensure its safe, reliable, and long-cycle operation. Considering that it is almost impossible to accurately establish the physical model of complex rotating machinery, data-driven remaining useful life prediction has become the frontier problem in this discipline. However, most of the available studies on data-driven remaining useful life prediction are devoted to equipment with time-invariant degradation rate, or in fixed operation environments, or without affected by the health management actions. This leads to the difficulty to apply these existing methods for remaining useful life prediction of rotating machinery applied in petrochemical industry. Because rotating machinery used in petrochemical industry frequently experiences time-varying degradation rate, operates in random operation environments, and is subjected to several health management actions. In this project, toward the rotating machinery in the petrochemical equipment, we mainly study the following key issues: 1) remaining useful life prediction method for rotating machinery with time-varying degradation rate; 2) remaining useful life prediction method for rotating machinery operating in random environments; 3) remaining useful life prediction method for rotating machinery affected by health management actions; and 4) experimental verification based on practical monitoring data. The obtained results have not only theoretical significance, but also potential applications to enhance the safety and reliability of petrochemical equipment.

英文关键词： Rotating machinery;Degradation modeling;Remaining useful life;Prediction