残缺判断信息下专家共识群决策理论、方法及应用研究

项目名称： 残缺判断信息下专家共识群决策理论、方法及应用研究

项目编号： No.71471056

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 许叶军

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 本项目研究残缺判断信息下专家共识的群决策理论与方法及应用，以申请人在残缺模糊判断的排序方法及不确定决策方面的研究成果为基础，借鉴完全信息下的专家共识群决策方法，建立不同类型残缺判断信息下专家共识过程的框架；考虑到次序一致性是决策者个体判断一致性的基本条件，运用图论研究残缺判断的次序一致性，进而研究基于次序一致性的专家共识模型；分别研究不同类型残缺偏好信息下的专家共识决策方法，这些类型包括残缺模糊互补判断，互反判断，区间判断，三角模糊判断，语言判断和目前广泛关注的直觉模糊判断，以及基于上述不同偏好类型的混合残缺判断；在共识过程中，若专家共识度未达到预先定义的阈值时，研究调整个别专家个别判断信息的方法，以最大限度的保持专家原来的判断信息。在上述研究基础上，研究专家各自的判断水平；研究开发基于上述群体共识方法的网络研讨平台，为非常规突发水灾害事件、基金评审等现实决策问题提供辅助决策支持。

中文关键词： 残缺判断；群体共识；群决策；专家判断水平；应用

英文摘要： : This project studies the theory, methods and applications of consensus in group decision making with incomplete preference relations. Based on our research achievements on the priority methods of incomplete fuzzy preference relations and other uncertain decision making problems, learning from group consensus methods under complete preference relations, this project will construct the new group consensus frameworks for different types of incomplete preference relations. As the ordinal consistency of a preference relation is the minimum condition that a decision maker is not self-contradictory, this project will study the ordinal consistency of incomplete preference relations using the graph theory, and then develop the group consensus models based on ordinal consistency. This project will study the consensus methods for different types of incomplete preference relations, such as incomplete fuzzy preference relations, incomplete multiplicative preference relations, incomplete interval preference relations, incomplete triangular fuzzy preference relations, incomplete linguistic preference relations, and incomplete intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations, as well as their mixtures. In the process of group consensus, this project will study how to modify a single judgment of individual decision maker when the consensus degree is not within the predefined threshold, this aims to preserve the decision makers' original information as much as possible. Based on the above researches, this project will further study the judgment level for each decision maker, and develop a network platform based on the above group consensus methods. It would provide the auxiliary decision supports for the real decision making problems, such as unconventional water disaster emergency, foundation evaluations, etc.

英文关键词： Incomplete preference relations;Group consensus;Group decision making;Assessment level of experts;Applications