基于风险能量的BT债务规模边界及风险控制有效性研究

项目名称： 基于风险能量的BT债务规模边界及风险控制有效性研究

项目编号： No.71471131

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 高华

作者单位： 天津理工大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 城镇化和地方经济发展对基础设施需求的扩大与有限财政收入的矛盾，导致BT债务规模激增，加大了地方政府债务风险。为避免风险扩大导致政府债务危机，本课题依据风险能量释放理论，以风险能量为度量手段，采取系统动力学模型的仿真模拟方法，进行了BT债务规模边界确定和风险控制措施有效性研究，包括：(1)利用扎根理论确定影响BT债务的风险因素及评价指标，利用国际标准、经验和GARCH法确定各评价指标阈值；(2)借助距的概念计算风险能量，以风险能量为标准判定敏感因子、债务边界和风险控制措施有效性；(3)构建包括外部环境、BT债务特征、偿还、风险控制措施和风险能量五个子系统的BT债务风险系统动力学模型，选取有代表性地方政府作为案例进行仿真模拟，分析风险敏感因子，确定BT债务规模边界和检验风险控制措施的有效性。研究成果为地方政府控制BT债务规模及风险提供了判定方法，丰富了地方政府债务风险管理理论。

中文关键词： BT项目；BT债务规模；风险能量；风险控制有效性；系统动力学

英文摘要： The contradiction between the increasing demands of urbanization and local economic development for infrastructure and the limited financial income, has led to the surge of BT debt scale and increased the local government debt risk. In order to avoid the government debt crisis provoked by the expansion of debt risk, according to the risk energy release theory, the research takes risk energy as a measure of risk and uses the simulation method in system dynamics model to study the determination of BT debt scale boundary and the effectiveness of risk control measure, it includes three steps: (1) Determining the risk factors and evaluation indexes of BT debt based on grounded theory, and utilizing the international practice and Garch method to determine the threshold value of evaluation indexes; (2) Calculating the risk energy through the concept of distance, then judging the sensitive factors, debt boundary and control measure effectiveness with risk energy as the standard; (3) Building the system dynamics model of BT debt risk, which includes five subsystems, i.e., external environment , BT debt characteristic, BT debt repayment, BT debt risk response measure and BT debt risk energy, and choosing the representative local governments as cases for simulation, then determining the scale boundary of BT debt and inspecting the risk control measure effectiveness. The results of the research offer a kind of judgment method for the determination of BT debt scale boundary and risk control measure effectiveness, enrich the theory of local government debt risk management.

英文关键词： BT project;BT debt scale;risk energy;risk control effectiveness;system dynamics