成长型煤炭资源城市发展制造业的激励机制研究——基于风险和不确定性理论

项目名称： 成长型煤炭资源城市发展制造业的激励机制研究——基于风险和不确定性理论

项目编号： No.71463038

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 杨中东

作者单位： 内蒙古大学

项目金额： 35万元

中文摘要： 本项目运用激励机制理论，从风险和不确定性角度来研究成长型煤炭资源城市发展制造业的产业政策。首先，运用资源诅咒、产业集聚和弱可持续理论论述这些地区发展制造业的必要性和途径。其次，把制造业分为煤炭深加工业和其他制造业，企业分为两类：注重技术进步企业和注重政策优惠企业；定性定量讨论这些企业面对的风险和不确定性。再次，分析风险和不确定性对煤炭租金的影响，矿业权拍卖和协议转让的选择。接着，讨论租金对参与约束的限制，资源补贴和财政补贴对两类企业的激励相容条件的作用；在企业分担风险和不确定性的条件下，把风险不确定性匹配动态化，构建委托代理模型，定性定量分析各种情况下的激励效果。最后，测算弱可持续的真实储蓄，衡量激励机制的总体绩效。本项目的特色是把风险和不确定性引进了委托代理模型，从微观角度为这些地区发展制造业的产业政策的制定、实施和评估提供了分析框架，这种方法对研究其他资源型城市的产业政策也有借鉴意义。

中文关键词： 风险；不确定性；激励机制；制造业；煤炭城市

英文摘要： In the view of risk and uncertainty, the research is the study on developing manufacturing industries in coal-abundant cities by using incentive theory. First, using theories including natural resource curse, industrial agglomeration and weak sustainability, necessity and ways to develop manufacturing industries in the cities are discussed. Second, risk and uncertainty exposed to manufacturing enterprises which lay stress on technical progress or policy preference, are studied by the qualitative and quantitative analyses .Third, we analyze coal rent and mining rights allocation including auction and negotiating transfer which are affected by risk and uncertainty. Forth, under the conditions including participation constraint affected by coal rent and incentive compatibility constraint affected by coal resource subsidy policy or financial subsidy policy, supposing a enterprise exposed to both risk and uncertainty, we establish a dynamic risk-uncertainty matching principal-agent model which is used to discuss some kinds of incentive performances by the qualitative and quantitative analyses .Finally, The overall performance of some practice incentive mechanisms is measured by the genuine savings from gNNP .A key feature of the program is that the model with risk and uncertainty provides a micro analytical framework for how to formulate, implement and evaluate industry policy for developing manufacturing in the cities. The methodology can also be used to analyze the same policy for other natural resource cities.

英文关键词： risk;uncertainty;incentive mechanism;manufacturing;coal city