社区医疗契约服务系统的主导反馈转移、博弈模型及效应传递与仿真研究

项目名称： 社区医疗契约服务系统的主导反馈转移、博弈模型及效应传递与仿真研究

项目编号： No.71463037

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 贾清萍

作者单位： 南昌大学

项目金额： 35万元

中文摘要： 社区医疗契约式服务是一种新型医疗服务模式，该模式正在全国试点，但试点中存在系列问题待研究。项目将在调研和现状研究基础上，用Spearman相关性分析、反馈环转移技术、因果链出树传递效应法、流率基本入树建模法、枝向量行列式算法、表函数和延迟函数理论、进化博弈论理论和系统动力学仿真评价技术结合，进行下五项研究：首先，进行社区医疗契约式服务发展的影响因素、主导反馈环转移作用和反馈变量增减转移作用研究；其次，进行利益主体合作博弈模型建立、激励条件和动力机制研究；再次，基于上两项研究进行对策生成和对策实施效应的因果链出树传递效应研究；接着，进行对策实施未来效应的仿真评价；最后，将研究成果应用到南昌市青云谱、百花洲试点社区，实现理论与实际应用的有机结合。项目可揭示医疗契约服务系统发展的反馈特性，利益主体行为的动力机制、政策效应规律，对解决分级诊疗和双向转诊难题有重要意义，可为政府医疗改革提供决策依据。

中文关键词： 医疗契约服务；主导反馈环转移；博弈模型；效应传递；效应仿真评价

英文摘要： The contracting model of community medical services is a new type of service, it is being implemented in China , but there are a series of problems in the process of implementation. In this project, we will study on the following five contents with the method of Spearman correlation analysis，feedback loop transfer technology, method of transfer effect by causal chain out-tree, mothod of level variable and rate variable fundermental in-tree modeling, method of branch vector determinant algorithm, table function and delay function theory, evolutionary game theory and system dynamics simulation and evaluation technology. Firstly, We will study on the factors in development of system, the function of feedback loop transfer and the tranfer function of varaible increase or decrease in the community medical contracting service system. Secondly, we will establish cooperative game model between interest-related subject, and study the mechanism of incentives and motivation. Thirdly, we will study on the countermeasures based on the above two research, and the implement effect analysis with the method of transfer effect by causal chain out-tree. Then, we will implement simulation and evaluation on the contermeasure'future effects.Finally, we will apply the research results to the Qingyunpu community , Baihuazhou community, which will realize combination between theory and practical application. The research will be significance to reveal the feedback characteristic, the motivation mechanism of intrest-related subject and the law of policy effect implement. and it will significance to the classification diagnosis system and the two-way referral system, and it also benefit to provide decision support for health reform.

英文关键词： contracting medical service;transfer of dominant feedback loop;game model;effect transfer;simulation evaluation on policy effects