变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝特性与应对机制研究

项目名称： 变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝特性与应对机制研究

项目编号： No.51509201

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 姜仁贵

作者单位： 西安理工大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 受气候变化和城市化影响，城市暴雨洪涝频发、广发，暴雨难以精准预报、城市洪灾危害巨大，该问题受到高度重视与广泛关注，是水文水资源领域研究重点。立足于历史、现在、未来，从不同情景、多个角度与不同尺度揭示城市暴雨洪涝历史变化特征和未来变化趋势；根据成因确定暴雨洪涝关键驱动因子，构建情景集；建立多情景组合的定量预估模型、基于情景模拟提出“实体-关系”预警信息推演方案、采用知识图实现情景预案知识可视化与流程化描述。按照“情景-应对”模式把情景与预估、预警、预案相关联形成一体化应对新机制；改传统事后分析和被动应对为事前预估、预警、预案及主动响应，提高应对的时效性和有效性。把定性到定量的情景分析与多信息技术综合集成，从特征到情景再到应对，逐步推进，综合考虑内在演变规律和外部驱动因素，基于情景分析的城市暴雨洪涝应对机制有研究价值。通过实践提升城市暴雨洪涝应对水平和防洪减灾能力、降低灾害损失，研究意义重大。

中文关键词： 城市暴雨洪涝；变化环境；情景分析；综合集成；应对机制

英文摘要： The Urban Storm Flood (USF) has a higher frequency and more influences nature because of global climate change and urbanization. The difficulty of rainstorm forecast and great harmfulness of urban flood disaster make the USF get great attention and wide public concern. It is also the research focus within hydrology and water resource areas. To be based on the past, present and future, the historical change characteristics and potential future trends of the USF are revealed from different scenarios, varying perspectives and different scales. The key driving factors are identified based on the causes of the USF to establish scenarios of the USF and key driving factors. The quantitative projection model is established based on combined scenarios. The entity-relationships deduction scheme of early warning information is presented using scenario simulation. The scenario preplan of the USF is made knowledge visualization and procedure description using knowledge graph. According to the scenario-response mode, the new response mechanisms of the USF, integrating scenario with projection, early warning and preplan are proposed. The mechanisms make the post analysis to beforehand projection, early warning, preplan and active response, which improve the timeliness and effectiveness of the USF response. Integrating scenario analysis both qualitative and quantitative with multiple information technologies meta-synthesis, the research is conducted gradually from characteristic, to the scenarios analysis, and finally, the response of the USF. Thus, it is of great research value to investigate the response mechanism of the USF using scenario analysis, based on the comprehensively analysis of internal spatiotemporal characteristic and external driving factors. The research is beneficial to improve the urban disaster reduction ability, and to reduce disaster loss. It is of crucial significance to carry out this research.

英文关键词： Urban Storm Flood (USF);changing environment;scenario analysis;meta-synthesis;response mechanisms