特大型水工程安全监控与预测预报方法研究

项目名称： 特大型水工程安全监控与预测预报方法研究

项目编号： No.51479054

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 顾冲时

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 我国已建、在建、规划建设多座特大型水工程，这些工程规模宏大、结构复杂，面临着高水头、高渗透压力、强震、复杂地质条件等诸多特殊服役环境，工程技术指标突破了现行技术规范，且安全监控的重要性和技术难度都超过了国内外所有已建工程，亟待专门针对特大型水工程的工程特征，开展特大型水工程安全监控与预测预报方面的基础理论和方法攻关，为制定新的设计、施工和运行规范提供科技支撑。本项目基于特大型水工程工作特点，利用原位变形、应力、渗流以及环境量监测资料，结合试验和数值分析的研究成果，拟重点围绕特大型水工程监测效应量有效信息多尺度提取、安全监控和预测预报模型建模、安全监控多维指标拟定及工作性态综合评判等方法开展系统研究，旨在揭示特大型水工程工作性态变化规律，建立相应的分析模型，并将所提出的理论和方法以及分析模型用于实际工程，监控特大型水工程的安全，预测预报其工作状态，以期为我国特大型水工程安全服役提供科技支持。

中文关键词： 特大型水工程；安全监控；预测预报；模型；指标

英文摘要： The huge hydraulic structure engineering have been built, are under construction and planning and construction in China in a large number. There are many special service environment containing high head, high permeable pressure, strong earthquake, complicated geological conditions, and so on. Engineering technical indices made a breakthrough to the current technical specification. Both the importance of safety monitoring and technical difficulty go beyond all construction projects at home and abroad. It is urgent specifically for engineering features of huge hydraulic structure engineering, to carry out the basic theory and method tackling of safety monitoring and prediction and provide scientific and technological support for new design, construction and operation specifications. The project is based on the characteristics of huge hydraulic structure engineering work using the in-situ deformation, stress, the amount of seepage and environmental monitoring data. It combines with the results of experimental studies and numerical analysis. Systematic studies are focused on monitoring variables of huge hydraulic structure engineering of effective information multi-scale extraction, safety monitoring and prediction model establishing, multidimensional index determining of safety monitoring and the working behavior comprehensive evaluation methods. The project is to reveal the working behavior variation of huge hydraulic structure engineering, establish appropriate analytical models, use the theories and methods and analytical models proposed in practical engineering, monitor the security of huge hydraulic structure engineering and forecast its working condition. Scientific and technical support is finally provided for safety service of huge hydraulic structure engineering in our country.

英文关键词： huge hydraulic structure engineering;safety monitoring;prediction;model;index