基于时空语义的微博突发事件检测与短期预测研究

项目名称： 基于时空语义的微博突发事件检测与短期预测研究

项目编号： No.71273010

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 赵洁

作者单位： 安徽大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 微博颠覆了传统的信息扩散模式，如何适应微博带来的公共安全挑战是政府部门及企业必须深思的问题。近两年，微博在突发事件中展现了越来越强的首报能力和影响力，如果缺乏对微博突发事件的监控以及短期预测手段，一旦发生微博突发事件，将使政府部门及企业处于被动地位，甚至危及社会稳定。本课题针对微博信息及传播的特点，重点研究微博时空信息抽取和微博突发事件的时空模型，以刻画微博突发事件的主题特征和演化特征；引入微博质量评价和信息过滤技术，以提高微博数据质量；探索时空模型驱动的微博突发事件检测方法，并从转发和评论的角度研究微博情感分析，最终构建微博突发事件的主题、事件演化和情感演化的完整过程；在此基础上建立微博事件短期预测模型与原型系统针对特定事件进行应用研究。本研究可以为政府部门和企业进行微博突发事件监控与应急处置提供决策依据，为维护社会安定团结，增强我国突发事件应急管理水平提供科学支撑。

中文关键词： 微博；突发事件；情感分析；时空信息；信息抽取

英文摘要： Microblogs have dramatically changed the mechanism of information propagation. It has been an inevitable issue for governments and enterprises to face the challenges that microblogs bring to public safety management. Since 2010, a lot of emergent events were firstly reported in microblogs, and this trend is even becoming more and more prominent. As microblogs have shown much influence in public safety and sentiment management, governments and enterprises have to employ effective ways to monitor and predict emergent events in microblogs; otherwise when emergent events in microblogs happen, they will be in a passive situation and even the society's stability will be affected. Based on the properties of microblog information and its diffusion, this project is focused on some key issues in detecting emergent events from microblogs. Firstly, we study the spatiotemporal information extraction from microblog and aim at constructing a spatiotemporal model for microblog events so as to describe the thematic and evolutional characters of microblog events effectively. Secondly, we introduce a measurement mechanism and a filtering approach to improve the quality of microblog information. Next, we explore the spatiotemporal-model-driven method to detect microblog events. Moreover, sentiment analysis in microblogs is research

英文关键词： Microblog；Bursty Event；Emotion Analysis；Spatiotemporal Information；Information Extraction