突发事件下应急车辆调度中的不确定风险评估与动态决策

项目名称： 突发事件下应急车辆调度中的不确定风险评估与动态决策

项目编号： No.61304182

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 陈孝伟

作者单位： 南开大学

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 突发事件中的应急车辆调度问题是国际热门问题,具有多主体、多因素、多变性等特征。该问题的决策过程分解为突发事件的风险评估、应急车辆调度、风险预测预警、动态应急车辆调度等关键环节。本项目首先对突发事件进行不确定风险评估和预测，鉴于突发事件的风险因素有突变性、非线性和耦合性等特点，一种具有自对偶、次可加的不确定测度将被用来对风险进行评估，建立该测度下的应急风险指数概念，并研究其数学性质。在获取合理应急需求的基础上，研究含有不确定变量或者不确定集的最优车辆路径优化问题，建立最优应急车辆调度的机会约束模型和多目标不确定规划模型。基于不确定推理理论，研究应急车辆调度救援与突发事件演化的预测预警，建立基于"不确定网络-模型计算-车辆调度应用系统"的情景-应对决策方法。最后通过设计混合智能算法对模型求解。本项目拟构建包含多学科的战略管理方法，特别是在历史数据缺失情况下，构建专家经验参与的应急决策管理方法。

中文关键词： 应急决策；风险分析；不确定规划；不确定系统；

英文摘要： Emergency vehicle dispatching problem is a complex decision-making problem with open multi-agent and multi-factor characteristics. The problem can be decomposed into four parts: risk assessment of the emergency, emergency vehicle scheduling, risk prediction and warning and dynamic dispatching. First, reasonable contingency requirements will be inferred from the risk assessment which are carried out by the emergency. Since the incident risk factors have high degrees of mutation, nonlinear, and correlated features, a more general measure satisfying subadditivity and duality properties will be used to carry out risk assessment. Based on the obtained emergency needs, we will build optimal vehicle routing models containing uncertain variables or uncertainty sets such as the optimal chance constrained model and multi-objective model. Furthermore, we will forecast the evolution risk based on uncertainty inference theory. A decision making process including "uncertain network"-"optimal vehicle dispatching"-"decision making application" will be proposed. Finally, hybrid intelligent algorithm will be designed to solve the mathematical models. The project aims to build multidisciplinary strategic management approach and to establish decision-making management methods with lacking of historical data and involving in exper

英文关键词： Emergency decision-making；risk analysis；uncertain programming；uncertain system；