土地利用变化对中国区域极端温度的影响及机理研究

项目名称： 土地利用变化对中国区域极端温度的影响及机理研究

项目编号： No.41475083

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 陈海山

作者单位： 南京信息工程大学

项目金额： 100万元

中文摘要： 大量证据表明，土地利用变化（LUCC）作为气候系统的重要强迫，能够通过改变陆地下垫面的属性和地气之间的交换过程，对区域乃至全球的气候产生不可忽视的影响，但是目前关于LUCC气候效应的研究还存在很大的不确定性，尤其是关于LUCC影响极端气候的机理还知之甚少。中国位于东亚季风区，是世界上人类活动最活跃的区域之一，也是LUCC变化最为剧烈的区域；该区域如此剧烈的土地利用变化能否对中国区域的极端温度产生影响？相关物理机制是什么？目前并不清楚。项目拟将人类活动引起的土地利用变化强迫为切入点，通过观测分析和数值模拟，揭示影响中国极端温度事件与土地利用变化的可能联系，探究当代和未来土地利用变化对中国区域极端温度可能影响及其相关的物理机制，定量评估土地利用变化影响极端温度事的不确定性，为深入理解人类活动对极端事件的影响及极端气候的成因提供一定参考。

中文关键词： 陆气相互作用；土地利用变化；极端温度；物理机理

英文摘要： More and more evdiences suggest that, as a important anthropangenic forcing of the climate system, the Land Cover and Land Use Change (LUCC) can produce significant impacts on regional even global climate by altering the land surface condictions and exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, there are still a lot of uncertainties in studies on the climatic effects of LUCC, and we even know nothing about its impacts on the climate extremes and the related machenisms. China, locating in East Asian Monsoon area, is one of areas seriously affected by human human activity, accompanied by significant changes in LUCC.Can LUCC lead to significant effects on the extreme temperature events over this area? And what is its physical mechanism? In this study, we attempt to investigate the possible linkage between LUCC and the temperature extreme events over this area with both observational analysis and numerical experiments. We also plan to explore the possible physical mechanisms that LUCC affects the temperature extreme event in current date and in the future. And the uncertainty that LUCC affects the temperature extreme events will be evaluated. This study can improve our understanding on how LUCC affect the climate extremes and the casue of the climate extremes.

英文关键词： Land-atmosphere Interaction;Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC);Extreme Temperature Events;Physical Mechanisms