基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的设施田间土壤氮素运移转化过程研究

项目名称： 基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的设施田间土壤氮素运移转化过程研究

项目编号： No.51309106

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 孙怀卫

作者单位： 华中科技大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 高产高效的设施种植模式为现代农业优先发展方向，但不当田间管理和过量施肥等因素导致了设施田间氮素累积，形成了对农区环境的严重威胁。了解和掌握设施田间土壤氮素状况及其时空变化特征是选择适宜田间调控措施、提高氮素利用效率和减少对农区地表地下水环境污染的关键。本课题主要研究设施环境内灌溉、排水、施肥等田间处理措施对土壤氮素运移过程和转化速率的影响，通过室内外试验研究获取田间土壤主要氮素过程的连续监测数据，建立并验证基于物理机制的设施田间土壤氮素运移转化模型，揭示设施环境内土壤氮素运移转化过程的时变特性与演化规律，深入研究田间土壤氮素模拟的数据、参数及模型结构误差对模型预测的影响，在此基础上提出基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的田间土壤氮素可靠模拟模式。研究成果将对有效评价设施土壤田间氮素状况、合理选择最优田间管理措施和保障设施农业可持续发展提供理论基础和实用工具。

中文关键词： 风险理论；动态演化；土壤水氮运移转化；饱和与非饱和土壤；

英文摘要： The sustainable development of modern agriculture is relied on the high-quality and high-efficiency cultivation in protected field, but is also facing the problems from inappropriate field management and excessive fertilization. The nitrogen enrichment in soil of protected field has been found as a big problem, and is serious threat to the environment of agricultural areas.The key of solution is to throw into the dynamic and spatial characteristics of nitrogen changes in the field, which has also been vital to choose the fit control measures, improve the field nitrogen efficiency, and reduce the pollute to water environment in agricultural areas. This proposal was focused on the study of nitrogen transport process in saturated-unsaturated soil by investigating on the effects from different treatments of irrigation, drainage, and fertilizer in the field, then by the numerical modeling study based on bayesian modeling averaging (BMA) method.The main steps could be described as: Firstly, a physical based model was suggested to build from the existed model and verified by field experiment data; secondly, the dynamic characteristics of model parameters and the weights of processes were studied by the dynamic identifiability analysis (DYNIA) method; after that, the uncertainty of parameters, model structure and data

英文关键词： Uncertainty theory；Dynamic identifiability；Soil nitrogen transport process；Saturated and unsaturated soil；