基于火灾动力学与统计理论耦合的公众聚集场所人员风险评估方法研究

项目名称： 基于火灾动力学与统计理论耦合的公众聚集场所人员风险评估方法研究

项目编号： No.70803015

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 褚冠全

作者单位： 交通运输部水运科学研究所

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 由于建筑功能复杂、人员密集、可燃物较多等原因，公众聚集场所火灾严重威胁人民生命财产安全。为了对公众聚集场所的火灾风险状况做出准确评估，本研究以建筑火灾人员疏散风险为评估对象，以火灾场景发生概率与可能导致伤亡人数为评估目标，综合考虑火灾动力学与人员疏散的随机性因素，建立了预测人员火灾风险的量化模型，进而提出了基于火灾动力学与统计理论耦合的公众聚集场所人员火灾风险评估方法，得到如下成果：（1）建立了火灾场景发生概率时变分布分析方法，通过将事件树和离散Markov链结合，实现了对火灾场景发生概率随火灾发展时间的动态分析；（2）基于可用安全疏散时间ASET和所需安全疏散时间RSET不确定性和相关性，实现了对任一火灾场景下人员伤亡后果的不确定性分析；（3）基于火灾动力学和统计理论耦合，结合火灾场景发生概率时变分布特征和人员伤亡后果随机性，实现了对人员疏散火灾风险的量化评估。研究成果发表在"Reliability Engineering and System Safety"、"东北大学学报（自然科学版）"等学术期刊和会议上发表论文6篇（其中SCI收录1篇，EI收录3篇，ISTP收录2篇）。

中文关键词： 火灾;公众聚集场所;风险评估;人员疏散

英文摘要： Fire becomes more dangerous to life and property, because of complex building occupancy, crowded people, more and more combustible. To make a reasonable fire risk assessment, fire risk is divided into two parts: occurrence probability of probable fire scenarios, number of fatalities of fire scenarios. Based on stochastic factors of fire dynamics and occupant evacuation, it is expected to found a quantitative model of fire risk to life. Then, to present a fire risk assessment method for life safety in public assembly places based on coupling fire dynamics and statistical theory. The achievements are as follows: (1) The approach has been proposed to analyze time-varying probability of probable fire scenario; (2) Uncertainty analysis on number of fatalities can be analyzed based on uncertainties and interdependencies of ASET (Available Safe Egress Time)/RSET (Required Safe Egress Time); (3) Fire risk can be evaluated as expected risk to life by coupling time-varying probability and uncertain consequence. During the period of this project, total 6 papers have published in the famous journals and conferences, such as "Reliability Engineering and System Safety", "Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)" (in which, 1 SCI papers, 3 EI papers: and 2 ISTP papers).

英文关键词： Fire; Pubilc assembly places; Risk assessment; Occupant evacuation