基于CMIP5 的我国冻土变化预估研究

项目名称： 基于CMIP5 的我国冻土变化预估研究

项目编号： No.41505080

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 夏坤

作者单位： 中国科学院大气物理研究所

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 全球气候变化预估是当前气候变化研究的热点和核心问题之一，对我国季节性冻土和多年冻土变化的合理预估，不仅有助于对大陆及区域尺度水资源和生态变化的预估，为气候预估提供参考，还可为进一步制定应对气候变化政策提供科学依据。本项目主要利用我国台站1956-2005年观测的气候要素资料（如温度、江水等）和冻土资料（最大冻结深度，土壤温度等），通过多模式集合法和统计降尺度法，将CMIP5试验中更多的模式结果有效的应用到我国冻土变化预估中，以减少单一或几个模式结果所带来的不确定性，从而提高我国冻土变化的预估水平，并给出在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种不同的典型浓度路径下2006-2100年我国季节性冻土和多年冻土的变化情况。

中文关键词： CMIP5；冻土；预估；多模式集合；降尺度

英文摘要： A reasonable projection on the seasonal frozen soil and permafrost over China could not only help us to understand the continental and regional water resource and ecology change, but also to provide basis for the climate projection. Based on the station observation data of 1956-2005, which include climate data, such as temperature, precipitation and so on, and frozen data of the maximum frozen depth and soil temperature, more CMIP5 models are effectively used in the projection of seasonal frozen soil and permafrost over China by adopting multi-model ensemble method and statistical downscaling method, which purpose is to reduce the uncertainty of one model and improve the level of projection. At the end the projection results of seasonal frozen soil and permafrost over China during 2006-2100 under three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are given. The capability of the CMIP5 models on simulating the seasonal frozen soil and permafrost change in the recent 50 years (1956-2005) over China is very important for the multi-model ensemble method，While a statistical relationship between the large-scale climate factors and frozen soil is the key for the statistical downscaling method.

英文关键词： CMIP5;frozen soil;projection;multimodel;downscaling