气候变化感知和适应行为的跟踪研究——以东北地区为例

项目名称： 气候变化感知和适应行为的跟踪研究——以东北地区为例

项目编号： No.41471155

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 田青

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 87万元

中文摘要： 基于2006年来我国东北地区变暖迟滞，气温波动加剧带来的难得机会，以行为科学、环境心理学和行为经济学为理论基础，通过入户深度访谈，追踪2006-2011和2011年以来东北种粮农民对气候变化的感知和适应气候变化的行为决策特点；并以课题组积累的2006年前同一地区种粮农民感知和适应数据及其分析结果为参照，分段对比2006年前、2006-2011年和2011年后气候变暖迟滞并明显波动期间，当地农民气候变化感知的偏差和应对气候变化的种粮行为的差异，揭示农民气候变化的感知对其种粮行为决策的影响规律的同时，探讨当地农民应对气候变化的前期种粮决策行为的经验反馈，分别对其2006-2011年和2011年后的气候变化感知和种粮决策的影响，进而构建农民感知和适应气候变化行为机理的完整回路模型或理论，提出有助于提升当地农民感知和适应气候变化水平与能力的地方针对性干预对策，服务于当地农村社会的可持续发展。

中文关键词： 适应性；气候变化；适应策略；适应措施；敏感性

英文摘要： Considering the facts of siganificant climate warming stop and the big temperature range fluctuation since 2006 in northeast China,it's a rare chance for conducting such a research. Based on the theories of Human Behaviorial Science, Environmental Psychology and Behavioral Economics, applying the investigation methods of interview, the peasants' perception and adaptation to climate change during 2006-2011 and after 2011 in northeast China will be tracked firstly. Then compared with the results of the research about peasants' perception and adaptation to climate change in northeast China made by the same research team with the data before 2006，the deviation of peasants' perception to climate change and their behavior difference in crop planting to response to climate change before 2006, during 2006-2011 and after 2011 will be compared in proper order during this climate fluctation period. The role and influence machenism of peasants' climate change perception to their decision-making in crop planting behavior during each research time period will be analysed and discussed in order to discover the influence and role of feedback from the peasants' decision-making behavior in crop planting to response to climate change before 2006 and during 2006-2011 respectively to their climate change perception and their decision-making and behavior in crop planting during 2006-2011 and after 2011. Based on these research,the loop feedback model or theory of the machenism of peasants' perception and adaptation to climate change will be promoted. And the intervention strategy to effectively improve the peasants' perception and adaptation decision-making behavior to climate change will be promoted and suggested to explore the ways and methods of strengthening the peasants' capactity of adaptation to climate change, and serve for local peasants' needs in sustainable development in their own local context.

英文关键词： Adaptation;Climate Change;Adaptation Strategy;Adaptation method;Sensitivity