采用空间数据分析与地学计算方法研究基于微地理单元的城市脆弱度问题

项目名称： 采用空间数据分析与地学计算方法研究基于微地理单元的城市脆弱度问题

项目编号： No.41461035

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 余丹林

作者单位： 新疆大学

项目金额： 52万元

中文摘要： 把握城市内部的脆弱度及其可能对城市可持续发展造成的影响，对城市可持续发展战略的实施及城市地理学的发展均具有非常重要的意义。本项研究在通过地理信息系统的手段界定城市的微地理单元及其脆弱度概念的基础上，拟从空间数据分析和地学计算的方法论（包括空间相关分析、空间回归分析与空间加权回归分析等方法）角度出发，对城市内部的组织结构、空间形态以及社会经济发展态势与可能威胁其可持续发展能力的各类事件（如城市犯罪、交通事故、环境污染、城市火灾等）之间的关系展开深入的调查、分析与研究。通过对乌鲁木齐市相关研究区域的实地调研，本项研究期待能够从城市内部微观的层面，采用空间数据分析的方法，把握城市脆弱度的分布态势及其与可能影响城市可持续发展的突发事件之间的关系，从而为实施城市的可持续发展战略提供科学决策的依据。

中文关键词： 公共政策；智慧城市；空间分析模型；经济计量模型；地理信息系统

英文摘要： Urban spaces are highly concentrated locales for people, wealth, information, and built infrastructures. The UN has forecasted that over half of the world's population will live in cities by the year of 2020. This has happened in the industrialized nations in Western Europe, North America and Japan. The newly developed economies, especially that of China, catch up with this trend rapidly. Although urbanization in China officially is but just a bit over 30%, actual individuals that are living in today's China's urban spaces would be very close to half of its gigantic population, if not over it, and is rapidly increasing. Understanding urban vulnerability towards a variety of common threats, such as urban crimes, urban fire disaster, urban traffic incidents, urban environmental pollution, etc., would be of utmost importance to the city governments and planners, the urban dwellers, business owners, insurance underwriters, and potential investors. Studies on urban vulnerability at the city scale have seen growing interests in the past decades. Scholars attempt to build urban vulnerability index based on the cities' social, economic, physical and environmental characteristics via statistical approaches, and link such vulnerability index with the possibility of various disasters' occurrence through statistical analyses. Such studies provide quite useful understanding at a national/regional scale for policy makers to have a general view of which cities are prone to what threats. Those studies, however, offer little help for city dwellers, governments, planners, business owners, insurance underwriters, etc., to actually understand how vulnerable their daily lives would be based on their surroundings. This current study hence embarks on such a task that investigates urban vulnerability at sub-city level, or what we termed micro geographic unit level. Which is constructed based on the build-up neighborhood conditions. In addition, although attempts have been made, studies at city-scale often ignore the potential spatial effects that exist in data analysis. Such ignorance might not be ill-justified, however, as spatial effects might very well be negligible at city scale. Information is highly generalized that the vulnerability characteristics of cities might not necessarily reflect a geographic variation hence render rather random patterns. When our concerns of urban threats and vulnerability are at micro geographic unit level, however, spatial effects would play a fairly important role in the ensued analysis. Vulnerability at the micro geographic units tends to change gradually from location to location, hence are highly associated with their immediate neighbors, which renders strong spatial patterns. The proposed research analyzes the information via spatial statistical and geocomputaion approaches that will include such spatial pattern to avoid model misspecification and variance inflation.

英文关键词： Public Policy;Smart City;Spatial Analysis Model;Econometric Model;Geographic Information System