考虑缺货竞争和价格风险的供应链需求模型及实证研究

项目名称： 考虑缺货竞争和价格风险的供应链需求模型及实证研究

项目编号： No.71202068

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 工商管理

项目作者： 荣鹰

作者单位： 上海交通大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 全球一体化和企业扁平化的进程使得供应链网络更趋复杂，局部地区供应能力的波动会影响到包括中国在内的整个全球供应链。本课题将分析供应短缺在多级供应链所造成的缺货竞争以及价格变动风险。当供应商出现供应短缺的情况下，1）我们研究其多个下游企业在产能信息不对称中的博弈行为所导致订货量的波动；2）由于供应和需求不匹配，供应商会调整价格，而下游厂商会根据其对价格未来趋势的预测来调整订货量，我们将分析供应商优化后的价格所造成的需求波动；3）我们将利用实证研究来分析中国实践中供应短缺对供应链需求的影响。目前，供应链管理领域往往将供应和需求不确定做为独立事件来制定应对策略。本课题将挖掘供应不确定性加剧供应链中需求波动的原因，以此完善供应链决策建模。我们的理论模型将为企业提供针对供应不稳定以及由其带来需求波动的综合策略。做为世界制造业中的重要一环，我们的实证研究可以为中国企业提高供应链决策提供一些经验和启示。

中文关键词： 鲁棒优化；供应链；库存；价格；信息不对称

英文摘要： Globalization and flat enterprise make the supply chain more complex nowadays. The supply uncertainty in one area can affect the global supply chains which involve enterprises in China. In this proposal, we take a different perspective by the analysis of stock competition and price fluctuation induced by supply uncertainty in multi-echelon supply chains. When the supplier has the shortage, 1） we are going to study the demand fluctuation caused by the compeition among multiple downstream enterprises under capacity information asymmetry； 2） due to the mismatch between the supply and the demand, the manufacturer may change the price of its goods. Its clients will adjust their order quantitity based on the forecasted price. We will study how the optimized price affects the manufacturer's demand； 3）we also utilize the emperical analysis to verify the impact of supply uncertainty on the demand fluctuation under practice in China. Currently, the researchers usually design the supply chain based on the assumption of independent supply uncertaint and demand uncertainty. Our study is going to reveal the reasons of enhanced demand uncertainty triggered by supply uncertainty. As a result, our research can be used to improve decision models for the supply chain management. This proposal will provide a more comprehensive way

英文关键词： robust optimization；serial supply chains；inventory control；pricing；information asymmetry