破碎化视角下考虑ICT影响的居民活动-出行决策行为研究

项目名称： 破碎化视角下考虑ICT影响的居民活动-出行决策行为研究

项目编号： No.51278301

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 隽志才

作者单位： 上海交通大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 本项目是在破碎化视角下，以居民活动-出行决策行为为对象，研究受ICT影响的居民活动-出行决策行为模式演变规律，并依此设计、评价交通需求管理策略。主要内容包括：研究基于位置服务与位置识别技术的数据获取方法并获取居民活动-出行时空数据；对活动-出行原始数据进行挖掘，分析居民活动-出行规律，推演ICT影响下居民活动-出行破碎化及多任务产生过程；建立多层混合离散-连续模型，运用分层贝叶斯估计方法对模型进行参数标定，通过模型描述ICT影响下的居民活动-出行行为决策过程；进而分析物理空间活动、赛博空间活动与出行行为之间相互影响机制；在时间维度、物理空间维度、赛博空间维度内，重新表达居民活动链结构，设计三维度活动链影响下的TDM策略，并评价其可行性。项目研究成果能够丰富和扩展出行行为研究的理论框架和分析方法，为制定、实施和评价ICT影响下的TDM策略提供科学的决策支持。

中文关键词： 活动；出行行为；破碎化；信息与通信技术；交通需求管理

英文摘要： From a fragmentation perspective this project studies the evolution law of activity-travel decision under the impact of ICT by taking individual activity-travel behavior as the research object. It aims to provide an operational method for the design and assessment of TDM strategies. The main contents of the research are as follows. First, data acquisition method will be developed to obtain spatio-temporal data of individual activity-travel behavior based on location service and location identification technology. Then characteristics of individual's activity-travel behavior will be drawn by mining the source data and the fragmentation and multi-task generation process under the impact of ICT will also be deduced. Next a multilayered mixed discrete-continuous model is established to describe the activity-travel decision process considering the impact of ICT and the model parameters will be estimated using Bayesian estimation method. Interaction mechanism between activity and travel behavior will be analyzed in physical space and cyberspace. Finally, activity chain are re-expressed in the tri-dimensional system of time, physical space and cyberspace. TDM measures are designed and evaluated in the same system. Results from this research will expand and enrich the theoretical framework and analysis methods of travel

英文关键词： activity；travel behavior；fragmentation；information and comunication technology；travel demand management