中国煤炭科学产能评估体系与调控机制研究

项目名称： 中国煤炭科学产能评估体系与调控机制研究

项目编号： No.71273259

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 聂锐

作者单位： 中国矿业大学

项目金额： 54万元

中文摘要： 受资源、安全、科技、环保、效益和国际化等因素的约束，学术和政府各界一直在提出煤炭工业发展科学化水平的问题。由于煤炭投资冲动、产能形成滞后市场变化和大量资产不可转移性等风险，如何引导和控制产能的问题倍受关注。本课题在掌握煤炭生产、需求、运输、储备、国际化等资料基础上，利用统计分析、博弈分析、指数评价、情景预测和系统动力学等方法，分析煤炭产能形成的复杂原因和传导路径，从而构建煤炭科学产能评价的理论、方法体系和评价模型，对我国煤炭产能进行动态分析评估。通过6个因素约束下的目标情景设计，确定煤炭产能的界限值和推进度，利用系统动力学方法进行情景模拟。同时，研究煤炭产能可持续调控政策工具平台和实施范式方案等，生成出煤炭科学产能宏观政策体系。本课题拟创新煤炭产能评价体系和模型，达到调剂煤炭产能、理顺煤炭市场供给关系、引导煤炭产业结构优化、规避产业发展的风险，实现煤炭资源合理开发利用和增长方式的根本改变。

中文关键词： 煤炭产能；评估体系；调控政策；；

英文摘要： As the constraints of resource endowment, production safety, mining technology, environmental pollution and industrial benefit of coal industry, the cognitive of coal overcapacity is been generally accepted, and the issues of coal's scientific capacity are being closely watched. The study aims to evaluate the coal scientific productivity. Basing on a large number of investigations on the current situations of coal production, coal demand, coal transportation, coal reserves, and the coal import-export, we use some methods, such as statistical analysis, Game Analysis, index evaluation, scenario forecasting and system dynamics method, to analyze the formation mechanism and conduction path of the coal overcapacity. Further, we will establish the theoretical system of the coal production capacity evaluation, which is used to describe, analyze and the status of China's coal production. In order to determine the limits of coal scientific productivity, we use the scenario analysis method to forecast the future coal production. Basing on above analysis, we use the system dynamics method to simulate the effects of the regulation policies on coal productivity, and to put forward a reasonable macro-regulation policy systems of coal productivity. This research will improve coal productivity evaluation and its predict though

英文关键词： coal production capacity；Evaluation system；regulation policy；；